Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

140
FXUS61 KBUF 102131
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of rain will move across the region this evening. This
beneficial rainfall will taper down to scattered showers overnight,
and as colder air filters over the Great Lakes, become focused east
of the Lakes for Monday. Activity will diminish in coverage area
Tuesday with drier air pushing into the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A period of steady rain will continue to spread east across the
region through early this evening ahead of a warm frontal segment
lifting through the lower Great Lakes. Still looking for a 4 to 6
hour period of light to at times moderate rainfall. Total rainfall
amounts will range a 0.25 to 0.50 inches across western New York,
and the upslope southern Tug Hill, while a little farther removed
from the better low level lift, rainfall amounts around a quarter of
an inch or less for the eastern Lake Ontario/Saint Lawrence Valley
region.

Sharp dry slot seen working into the southern Great Lakes will shift
across the region this evening bringing an end to the steady rain.
This should be short lived as a robust shortwave trough, increased
moisture, and cold front advances across our region, with scattered
showers remaining through the night.

At least a few light showers should linger Monday morning, before
shower activity becomes more frequent by Monday afternoon as another
cold front approaches our region from the west, and a secondary mid
level wave digs down across the Great Lakes. The coverage of showers
will be greater downwind of the lakes where some lake enhancement
and upslope develops.

Winds will be gusty through this period. Southerly winds will
increase through this evening as the pressure gradient tightens, and
surface low to the north deepens slightly. These winds will become
southwesterly tonight behind a cold frontal passage with gusts into
the 30 mph range, with the strongest gusts northeast of Lake Erie
where perhaps gusts will reach 45 mph.

Monday these gusts will subtly decrease in the morning, however a
low level jet to near 50 knots will focus on the area. Decent mixing
will bring wind gusts back into the 30 mph range, with the strongest
gusts to possibly 45 mph near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad area of surface low pressure over southern Quebec and
northern New England will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes
Monday night. As the axis of the system`s secondary parent trough
quickly pivots across the eastern Great Lakes, its cold front will
sweep through in tandem. The resulting increase in synoptic moisture
and plummeting 850H temps will reinvigorate the lake enhanced and
upslope showers east/southeast of the lakes, while height falls/DPVA
aloft allow additional showers to develop outside of these areas.
The first half of the night will likely be the more active portion
as the broader scale forcing for ascent will already lie east of the
forecast area by the pre-dawn hours, though with cold NW flow (850H
temps dropping to -6C/-7C) across the lakes and some residual low-
level moisture, there remains at least a chance of additional
showers in most areas through daybreak. While this airmass will be
cold enough to support a partial, if not full changeover to snow
(esp. higher terrain areas) early Tuesday morning, it will also be
more significantly drying out by this point. Little to no
accumulations expected, though there could be a thin coating of wet
snow across grassy/elevated surfaces up on the Tug Hill/Western
Adirondacks.

Otherwise...Breezy winds ahead of the front early Monday night will
diminish overnight as the pressure gradient over the region relaxes
and the main LLJ moves east with the trough. Sfc temps will fall
back into the 30s in most areas, with upper 20s across the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Plenty of clouds and a few lingering light rain/snow showers
downwind of the lakes to start the day Tuesday, though conditions
will be improving as strong high pressure at all levels builds east
across the Great Lakes. While there will likely be more sunshine by
the afternoon, temps will still run several degrees below normal for
a change and only top out in the low to mid 40s in most areas, a few
upper 30s hanging on across the hilltops. Temps aloft will begin to
warm Tuesday night, though mostly clear skies and light winds will
lead to a chilly night in the 20s, with a lows possibly in the teens
across the Tug Hill/Western Adirondacks.

Dry weather and not as chilly for Wednesday and much of Wednesday
night as the surface high moves to far eastern Quebec and ridges
southward across New England to the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will
allow a decaying warm front stemming from a trough moving across the
Mississippi Valley to begin lifting into the Lower Great Lakes.
There remains some uncertainty in the arrival time of precip
associated with this system, with deterministic 12z guidance
trending a bit faster...Though with the exception of the GFS, an
entirely dry night is being advertised. Have cut back PoPs from
continuity/NBM to account for this trend. Otherwise, lows will range
from the low 40s near the Lake Erie shoreline to the 20s east of
Lake Ontario, with mainly 30s in between.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak shortwave and cold front will slowly move across the area
Thursday. Still some model disagreement on strength and timing of
this, but the overall trend has been weaker with this system
supporting low to mid-range chance PoPs Thursday and Thursday night.
Precipitation would mostly be rain, although some wet snowflakes
can`t be ruled out across the North Country.

The shortwave exits east on Friday, with a cool northwest flow
developing across our region. There remains model disagreement on
how cool aloft it will be with the 12Z GFS colder than the model
consensus. Can`t rule out some light lake enhanced showers southeast
of the lakes Friday, but the vast majority of the day will be rain-
free.

After this, a mid level ridge will build across the region late
Friday night through early Sunday. This will provide fair and
seasonably cool weather. A trough will then dig across the Western
Great Lakes Sunday with a frontal boundary approaching from the west
late in the day. Sunday will be warmer due to the southerly flow,
with a chance of showers during the afternoon and evening as this
system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flight conditions will deteriorate evening as a period of rain moves
through the region from west to east ahead of an approaching warm
frontal segment. Once the rain begins, it will last for 4-6 hours
and will be moderate at times, before becoming showery. Ceilings
will lower to MVFR where rain is falling, but will likely lower to
IFR by this evening. KJHW will experience IFR to LIFR CIGs.

As the widespread rain becomes more showery in coverage tonight,
ceilings should remain MVFR. Southwest winds will pick up behind
the system cold front with gusts to near 35 knots downwind of
Lake Erie at KIAG and KBUF, with gusts up to 30 knots elsewhere.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR with showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Poor marine conditions developing through Tuesday as a series of
cold front moves across the lower Great Lakes. Ahead of the first
cold, southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots through early
this evening. Winds will shift to southwest then west and increase
tonight behind the passage of the first cold front, increasing to
near 30 knots with periodic gale force gusts possible.

Elevated westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist for much of
Monday. Winds will then shift towards the northwest behind a
secondary cold front Monday evening, increasing to 25 to 30 knots,
especially on Lake Ontario, with periodic gale force gusts likely.

Northwest winds will slowly diminish and becoming northerly Tuesday
as high pressure nears the lower Great Lakes from the west. Marine
conditions will gradually improve on Lake Erie, but choppy to rough
conditions will likely continue on Lake Ontario, especially the
central and eastern basin through the day Tuesday as northwest winds
continue to near 20 knots.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
         Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM
         EST Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA