Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS61 KBUF 031545
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue across the western Southern Tier
and southeast of Lake Ontario today with some additional
accumulation, but intensity of the snow will be considerably lower
than over the weekend. The lake effect snow bands will move north
overnight through early Wednesday, bringing a quick burst of snow
and minor accumulations to areas east and northeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario. Low pressure will then pass just north of the area
Wednesday night through Thursday, with very gusty winds, periods of
snow, blowing snow, and possibly a few snow squalls. The greatest
accumulations will be east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as lake
enhancement develops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main concern through Wednesday morning will be the last of this
very long duration lake effect snow event. The intensity of snowfall
is not nearly as high as over the weekend, but still enough to have
some impact. Lake induced equilibrium levels will continue to run 12-
14K feet today through this evening, before falling rapidly
Wednesday morning as warm advection aloft increases and inversion
heights lower. A northwest flow regime will continue through most of
today before boundary layer flow quickly backs to the southwest
tonight, carrying lake effect northward.

Off Lake Erie...

Bands of lake effect snow with some upslope enhancement will continue
today across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an upstream
connection to Lake Huron persisting. The area of snow has shifted
southwest this morning where it will stay through the early
afternoon, and these areas will see a temporary lull with the snow
almost entirely into northwest PA. The band of snow will then move
back northeast into the western Southern Tier later this afternoon
and evening as boundary layer flow begins to back to the west and
southwest over Lake Erie. Additional accumulations of 2-4" are
expected in the most persistent bands across higher terrain through
this evening.

Tonight, the lake effect snow across the western Southern Tier in
the evening will move rapidly north as boundary layer flow backs to
the southwest, and eventually SSW. The band of snow will begin to
move rapidly northward by late evening, crossing the Buffalo Metro
area in the middle of the night, and ending up in Niagara County and
weakening before daybreak. Snowfall rates may still be moderate, but
the rapid northward shift of the band will likely limit
accumulations to 1-3" overnight. The snow will mostly be over by the
start of the morning drive.

Off Lake Ontario...

Earlier widespread snow south and southeast of Lake Ontario has
transitioned back toward more of a lake response, focusing east and
southeast of the lake. The lake response will organize into a band
of lake effect snow southeast of the lake, and linger longer into
the early afternoon across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties,
locally enhancing snowfall with a fresh 2-3" likely in persistent
bands.

The lake effect snow will weaken this afternoon southeast of the
lake and may end altogether for a time later this afternoon and
early evening. A band of snow will then re-organize over the lake
this evening, likely extending into Oswego County briefly on
anticyclonically curved WNW flow. Boundary layer flow will quickly
back to the southwest and SSW overnight through early Wednesday,
carrying the snow northward across Watertown and towards the
Thousand Islands region. Expect 1-3"/2-4" overnight through
Wednesday morning as the band moves north across the area. There may
be some impact to the morning drive in Jefferson County.

Wednesday, any lingering lake effect across Niagara County off Lake
Erie, and northern Jefferson County off Lake Ontario, will weaken
and mostly end through the morning hours as ongoing warm advection
continues to lower inversion heights. Our attention then turns
briefly back to the synoptic scale. Low pressure will track just
north of the upper Lakes, with a broad warm advection pattern
supporting a chance of some occasional light snow Wednesday.
Accumulation in most areas will be minimal from this. East of Lake
Ontario, increasing southwesterly upslope flow may produce a few
inches in the afternoon across the Tug Hill Plateau. More on this
event in the short term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night a clipper system will make its way from north
of Georgian Bay to the southeasternmost portion of the Ontario-
Quebec border...and in the process will sweep its trailing cold
front across our region during the second half of the night. The
approach and passage of the cold front will be marked by a
notable increase in snow shower coverage...particularly
northeast and east of the lakes where increasing lake
enhancement and/or upsloping will lead to some periods of
moderate to potentially heavy snow. At this juncture it appears
that most areas should see a general 1-2" of snow Wednesday
night...with higher amounts of 2-4" likely northeast of the
lakes...and as much as 3-6" in favored areas of orographic
enhancement across the Southern Tier and Southern Tug Hill
region. Additionally...the tight pressure gradient/increasing
winds accompanying the frontal passage will likely also lead to
some blowing snow that will further help complicate matters.

By Thursday morning the cold front will be east of our region...
however a general westerly to west-northwesterly cyclonic flow of
colder air and wraparound moisture will continue to produce fairly
numerous snow showers...with lake and orographic enhancement leading
to areas of more widespread/concentrated activity east and southeast
of the lakes...with the latter also potentially aided by upstream
connections to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Expect Thursday to
feature another general inch or two of snow in most areas...with
locally higher amounts of 4-7" appearing likely across the higher
terrain east of both lakes. The snowfall will also again be
complicated by increasing winds...with the combination of cold air
advection and 925-850 mb winds of 40-50 knots likely supporting some
fairly widespread gusts to 35-40 mph...and possibly to even around
50 mph or so immediately downwind of the lakes...all of which will
lead to blowing snow once again.

Thursday night a more west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will
help to direct increasingly multi-banded and weakening lake snows
across areas southeast of the lakes...where another 1-3 inches of
snow will be possible during the night. Elsewhere snow showers
should become more scattered as we push through the night as the mid
and upper levels dry out...though there may still be some additional
accumulations of up to another inch or so in spots. Otherwise winds
will slacken and also lead to a reduction in blowing snow.

Taking all of the above in tandem with expected snow accumulations
across the eastern Lake Ontario region during Wednesday on the front
side of this system...we have hoisted the next round of Winter Storm
Watches. Off Lake Erie...these are in effect for Southern Erie...
Wyoming...Chautauqua...and Cattaraugus counties from Wednesday night
through most of Thursday night. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...these
are in effect from early Wednesday afternoon through most of
Thursday night. While the remainder of the area remains headline-
free for this time frame as of now...expect that the combination of
snow/wind/blowing snow will eventually also warrant some Winter
Weather Advisories as the event draws closer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The core of the coldest air of the season will move overhead through
Friday. Lingering cold cyclonic flow will keep chances for lake
effect snow showers going through Friday night (first southeast...
then east of the lakes as winds back)...with these weakening over
time as high pressure builds into the region and provides increasing
drier air and subsidence. As the axis of the high drifts east of the
area Saturday through Sunday...continued warm advection and drying
on its backside should generally result in the lingering lake snows
gradually lifting to areas northeast of the lakes and fizzling out
over time...though a weak trough passing by to our north could also
bring a brief round of some more general snow showers during
Saturday. Following the end of the lake effect pcpn...a period of
largely dry weather may then follow Sunday into Sunday night...
before a southern stream system brings the next chance of precip
(which at this point looks to be predominantly rain) on Monday.

With regard to temperatures...these will be below normal through
Saturday...then should warm back to above normal levels (highs in
the 40s) by the end of the period owing to steady warm advection in
between the departing surface ridge and approaching system for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes today in a
northwest flow regime. Outside of lake effect snow, areas of MVFR
CIGS will continue through this morning before improvement to mainly
VFR.

Off Lake Erie...lake effect snow will remain across the western
Southern Tier today with areas of IFR/LIFR including at KJHW.
Tonight, boundary layer flow will quickly back to the southwest,
carrying an area of lake effect snow quickly northward. This band of
snow will bring a few hours of IFR/LIFR to KBUF and KIAG on the way
north. The band should be north of KBUF with improving conditions
prior to the early morning departure push.

Off Lake Ontario...earlier widespread snow is shrinking back to more
narrow bands of lake effect snow this morning. The lake snow will
likely break apart and mostly dissipate for awhile later this
afternoon and evening. A band of lake effect snow will then organize
over the eastern end of the lake again tonight, moving quickly
northward and bringing a few hours of IFR/LIFR to KART late tonight
and early Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Windy. MVFR/IFR possible in snow showers northeast of
the lakes, VFR/MVFR with a few snow showers elsewhere.

Wednesday night...Areas of IFR/LIFR in snow showers and heavier
pockets of snow, especially east/northeast of the lakes. Very windy.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers. Heavier lake effect
snow east of the lakes with local LIFR. Very windy.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Localized IFR in
lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will continue to produce choppy conditions on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario today, but winds and waves will generally stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Moderately strong low pressure will then pass just north of the
lakes later Wednesday through early Thursday before a secondary
coastal low deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night. This
will likely bring a period of Gales to Lake Erie Wednesday through
Thursday, and Lake Ontario Thursday through Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for NYZ012-019-020-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
         for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through late
         Thursday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/SW
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock