Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS61 KBUF 131052
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
552 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing for widespread light to moderate
accumulating snowfall across the region late Wednesday through
Thursday morning. High confidence that it will turn much colder
late Wednesday, and then last through Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winds become gusty at times through this evening.

2) Minor accumulating snows possible across the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario tonight.

3) Frigid temperatures for Wednesday night through Thursday night

4) Accumulating snow will return later Wednesday through Thursday

5) Active and cold period returns starting over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Winds become gusty at times through this evening.

A deepening low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes
today, and then to our north tonight. Despite the unfavorable warm
advection pattern, a strengthening 925 mb LLJ (+50 knots) out ahead
of this system will support some winds aloft mixing to the surface
with gusts up to 30-40 mph this afternoon into the evening. The
strongest wind gust will be found in the favored downslope areas,
and also across the higher terrain. As the low tracks east this
evening and tonight, it will nudge a warm front into and through
western New York bringing the potential for some rain showers. With
the passage of this front, the dry slot will the work into the
region with showers diminishing in coverage.

Key Message 2...Minor accumulating snows possible across the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario tonight.

While most of the region will see p-type in the liquid form this
evening and tonight, BUFKIT thermal profiles do suggest it will be
cold enough to support some minor accumulating snowfall east of Lake
Ontario. This will especially be the case for the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill where we may pick up 1-2", even a few isolated spots
may see some higher amounts. That said...temperatures are very
marginal which will support a very wet snow with low SLRs (< 10:1).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Frigid temperatures for Wednesday night through
Thursday night

A pair of cold fronts will cross the region on Wednesday, including
an Arctic cold front. The airmass behind the Arctic front will bring
a brief period of frigid temperatures Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Temperatures for this timeframe will be below
normal, with Thursday afternoon highs generally 10 to 15 degrees
below normal with highs in the mid teens to near 20 for most areas.
Nighttime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday nights will be in
the single digits to low teens for most areas. Breezy winds will
cause windchill values to drop to near 0 to 5 below zero during this
period.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Accumulating snow will return later Wednesday
through Thursday

A pair of cold fronts will cross the region on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, as the fronts cross the forecast area, rain showers
will track from west to east with rain mixing with and changing to
snow through the day as temperatures cool during the second half of
the day. As the cooler airmass filters into the region, a response
off of the lakes will develop, resulting in some lake enhancement
later in the day, especially off of Lake Erie where CAA will start
earlier. In addition to snow from the lake enhancement, an area of
low pressure will develop along the passing cold front late on
Wednesday and will bring accumulating snow on Wednesday night, with
the greatest snow potential for areas to the east of Rochester. The
sfc low will develop over NE PA and eastern NY, with the western
edge of snow and colder temperatures over the eastern half of the
BUF CWA. As the strong Arctic front tracks across the area later
Wednesday, a quick burst of widespread snow will certainly be
possible across much of the forecast area. Behind the passing Arctic
front and as temperatures continue too cool further, lake enhanced
and synoptic snow will transition to a period of lake effect snow
mainly east to southeast of the lakes later Wednesday night through
Thursday. Snowfall for most areas of 2 to 4 inches will be possible,
with higher amounts east to southeast of Lake Erie of 3 to 6 inches.
Areas southeast and east of Lake Ontario where the better synoptic
snow is expected along with lake enhanced/effect snow that follows
could certainly see at least 4 to 7 inches from Wednesday evening
through Thursday night. There is still some uncertainty among
guidance for the synoptic snow on Wednesday night and amounts, but
guidance is trending toward some higher values that what has been
expected the last few days for these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 5...Active and cold period returns starting over the
weekend

An active period of snowy and colder than normal temperatures will
return starting over the weekend. Large scale troughing along with
passing shortwave troughs and sfc lows is expected to continue into
the middle of next week, resulting in periods of snow along with
cold temperatures. Periods of widespread synoptic snow from passing
systems will be followed by lake effect snow. Most of the widespread
snow should be generally limited to half a day at a time as most of
the sfc lows look to be more of the quick moving clipper variety.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Freezing drizzle will end east of Lake Ontario (KART) this
morning with flight conditions improving. Expect MVFR cigs to
improve to VFR by mid morning for all terminals today. Winds
will pick up by this afternoon ahead of a front, with gusts up
to 25 to 35 knots through this evening.

A deepening low pressure passing by the upper Great Lakes and north
of our region tonight will bring MVFR to IFR cigs to area terminals
with some rain and higher terrain (Tug Hill region) snow.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers, with IFR
possible in any snow showers.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with localized lake enhanced snow showers
possible east-southeast of the lakes.

Friday and Saturday...MVFR with snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will strengthen again today which will keep
elevated winds across area lakes and Small Craft Advisories in
place through much of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR