Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

800
FXUS61 KBUF 251849
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few widely scattered showers may linger through late in the day,
otherwise mainly dry, warm, and still somewhat humid weather
expected through tonight as high pressure builds southeast over the
area in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A slow-moving weak area
of low pressure and attendant warm front will then bring increasing
chances for showers and storms across western NY by Saturday
afternoon, then for much of the area Saturday night, lingering into
Sunday morning. High pressure will bring drier conditions Sunday
afternoon into the start of the new work week, however hot and humid
weather is set to return for Sunday, peaking on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
"Cold" front currently sagging southward through western and
north- central NY this afternoon. Much of the shower activity
has either tapered off or shoved east of the area. Expect
continued drying as high pressure builds in from the northwest,
although lingering low- level moisture may spark a few scattered
showers or even an isolated storm along lake breeze convergent
boundaries through late afternoon/early evening.

High pressure builds over the region tonight providing dry
conditions. Slightly less humid airmass in the wake of the front
will allow for a bit cooler temperatures tonight, however will
remain quite sticky with the exception of the North Country where
dew points may dip into the upper 50s. Aforementioned front will be
stalled out just southwest of New York State. Lingering low-level
moisture in the vicinity of the front will bring the chance for some
fog development second half of tonight to the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes region, especially the valley areas.

After a dry start to Saturday, high pressure will slide east into
New England allowing the stalled boundary just to our southwest to
begin its` slow return northeastward toward the region. This will
bring increasing chances for showers and storms to western NY
Saturday afternoon, with dry weather expected to last from the
Finger Lakes eastward through the end of the day. Very warm and
humid conditions will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A compact...convectively-augmented mid-level shortwave over Lower
Michigan at the start of this period will push east and across New
York State between Saturday night and the first part of Sunday...
with its attendant weak warm front lifting north into our area
Saturday night...then quickly getting shunted back southward as a
"cool" front Sunday morning (though there will be little change
thermally speaking as this occurs). The combined lift from these
features (DCVA supplied by the shortwave, and isentropic ascent out
ahead of the warm front) will interact with an increasingly moist
airmass (PWATs in the vicinity of 2 inches) to bring the likelihood
of showers and a few thunderstorms to areas south of Lake Ontario
Saturday night...with pcpn chances then lowering with increasing
northward extent east of Lake Ontario. Given the high atmospheric
moisture content and what most guidance suggests will only be weak
to modest instability...the main threat from this activity should be
some locally heavy downpours.

The bulk of the precip from this system will come between Saturday
night and very early Sunday...with pcpn chances then lowering fairly
quickly from west to east on Sunday as subsidence and drying aloft
rapidly overspread our region in the wake of the shortwave. Building
upper-level ridging across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
should then supply our region with largely dry weather and more
midsummer heat and humidity both Sunday night and Monday...before a
weak shortwave trough/frontal system dropping southeastward along
the periphery of the upper ridge brings us another chance of
showers/thunderstorms Monday night.

With respect to high temperatures...expect readings on Sunday to be
fairly similar to those on Saturday given the expected lingering low-
level moisture and pcpn in the morning...which will result in highs
primarily ranging through the 80s. Coupled with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s/lower 70s...this should result in apparent temps
largely remaining below heat advisory criteria (95 F)...though
portions of Niagara/Orleans counties could potentially flirt with
this briefly. Monday will be hotter given the absence of convection
and 850 mb temps rising to the +19C to +20C range...which should
result in widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations (with mid 80s across the higher terrain). In tandem
with dewpoints again around 70...there will be a better chance of
areas from the Niagara Frontier eastward to Oswego county seeing
apparent temps reaching the mid and upper 90s...and as such we`ll
continue to highlight this potential within the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With our area still remaining under the influence of the upper-level
ridge...very warm and humid conditions will persist across our area
through the first 24-36 hours of this period...along with the
potential for additional isolated to scattered convection. A
significant pattern change will then follow for the rest of next
week...as the westward retrogression/amplification of the upper
ridge across western North America will drive the development of a
large downstream upper-level trough over eastern Canada...the Great
Lakes...and the Northeastern states. This will send a cold front
through our region during midweek...with a notably cooler...
drier...and more comfortable airmass then overspreading our region
for the balance of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front currently sagging southward through the area, thus
producing a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS currently. As drier air
associated with high pressure continues to work in from the
northwest, expect most, if not all sites to become VFR by late
this afternoon. Although mainly dry weather is expected,
lingering low- level moisture may spark a few scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms along lake breeze convergent
boundaries through late in the day (closest to KBUF and KART).

Dry weather expected tonight with aforementioned cold front stalled
just to the southwest of New York State. Lingering low-level
moisture in the vicinity of the boundary may produce some fog across
the interior Southern Tier (KJHW) to the Finger Lakes region with
areas of MVFR/IFR VSBY possible, mainly VFR elsewhere. Fog is
expected to be locally dense in our typical Southern Tier valleys
second half of tonight into the start of Saturday. May also see some
low stratus across the Southern Tier as well in the MVFR/isolated
IFR range second half of tonight.

Any MVFR/IFR expected to become VFR with a couple hours of daybreak,
lasting through at least midday. Mainly dry weather Saturday
morning, before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
across areas west of the Finger Lakes Saturday afternoon as the
stalled boundary starts to make its` return as a warm front. This
may also bring another round of MVFR CIGS to the Southern Tier
Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/VFR becoming mainly VFR Sunday
afternoon. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

Sunday Night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers/afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front currently sagging southward through the lower Great Lakes
region, and will settle just south of the region by late in the day
with winds shifting to west and northwest at 15 knots of less. This
will create a light to moderate chop on both Lakes through early
evening.

Surface high pressure will slide east across the central Great Lakes
and into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, supporting light winds and
waves tonight through Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...EAJ/JM