Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS61 KBUF 152341
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
741 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes made to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A chance of showers Saturday with a few thunderstorms possible,
of which may be capable of producing gusty winds.

2) Summer-like heat possible Monday and Tuesday, then turns cooler
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of showers Saturday with a few
thunderstorms possible, of which may be capable of producing gusty
winds.

The cool persistent low that impacted the area will slowly exit out
to sea this afternoon. High pressure now edging in across the
eastern Great Lakes will allow the May sun to take over across WNY
which will make for a pleasant day for most of the area. That
said...the departing low will keep the North Country enshrouded in
mostly cloudy skies and continued cool. Overall...we are seeing
improved conditions for most locals after a wet and very chilly day
yesterday.

Otherwise...attention will turn to this weekend with a mid-level
shortwave and front races east across the region. Ahead of the front
south-southwest flow will begin to pick up across the region as a
strengthening LLJ of 35-45 knots arrives. With the arrival of deeper
moisture and building instability we should see some measure of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms by the afternoon-evening.
The greatest potential for any storms will likely be found southeast-
east and well inland from the cooler stabilizing lakes. As was
noted...the severe potential still looks low at this moment. Even
so...any stronger cells that do develop potentially could produce
some gusty winds.

The front exits to our southeast Saturday night with most shower
activity coming to an end. Generally quiet weather expected Sunday
with temperatures in most places climbing into the 70s, even a few
readings in the low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like heat possible Monday and Tuesday, then
turns cooler Wednesday.

The mid and upper level ridge amplifies over the eastern third of
the U.S. beggining Sunday, and then drifts off the Mid-Alantic Coast
with cooler weather for the latter half of the week. As the ridge
crests across the region it will bring summer-like warmth to the
region Monday and again on Tuesday. This will boost temperatures
into the 80s across much of western and north-central NY, with a run
at 90F not out of the question for some of our traditionally warmest
locations. Even so...the potential for reaching headline worthy
criteria for heat is low at this time. Given the potential building
warmth early next week...its worth noting that area water temps are
still not that warm and in the 40s to low 50s. Take every precaution
if you plan to visit any area waterways this weekend and next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found with a surface
high pressure centered over the eastern Carolinas...ridged
northward over the Lower Great Lakes. As this features slides
out to sea...a shortwave trough will slide down and across the
Great Lakes region supporting a south to southwest wind flow
but also an increase in shower activity, especially during the
final 6 to 8 hours of the TAF cycle. Modest instability across
interior WNY will support chances for thunder at KJHW and KROC.


These southwest winds may gust up to 25 - 30 knots tomorrow
afternoon, especially northeast of Lake Erie (KBUF/KIAG).

Though convective activity should largely remain with VFR flight
conditions, there will be occasional MVFR flight conditions in
either lower ceiling heights, or brief heavier showers lowering
the visibility.


Outlook...

Saturday Night...MVFR/VFR with showers passing east.

Sunday and Monday... Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers early
Sunday.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. Potential for showers and thunderstorms
will increase late in the day, with minimal reductions expected
at this time.

Wednesday. VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening south to southwest flow will continue to support
gentle to moderate breezes this afternoon through Saturday afternoon
supporting a light to moderate chop on both Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Despite this, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels.

Pressure gradient will then weaken, with light winds and little to
no wave action on both lakes Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...EAJ